A statement that enables us both to predict and to better understand the cause of that which it explains. If you conduct an experiment that rejects your hypothesis, then. A medical student has been reading intensively about various diseases of the nervous system. WebA hypothesis (plural hypotheses) is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon. C. It's Just as a good explanatory argument rules out coincidence, it also rules out deception. structuralism, functionalism, behaviorism, humanism. How in the world did you deduce that? I asked. When he was a young lawyer, Abe Lincoln had to defend a client against a case that seemed to be strongly supported by a list of undisputed facts. When an explanation already exists, the arguer is free to respond in, for example, the case of the student pilots performance, OK, but this outcome is explained both by the efficacy of punishment and by the normal return to the current mean after an aberrant performance. But now it violates the second part of the total evidence condition as well! To say that an explanation or an outcome is not falsifiable is to say that any observation at all is consistent with the explanation. It can also be helpful to know that when explanatory arguments occur in ordinary language, the ifthen premise is more often than not implicit (which tends not to be the case with the fallacy of affirming the consequent). d. fans become more aggressive under the influence of alcohol General explanation. B. The researchers also monitored a drought that killed off 85 percent of the finches on an island one year. It makes no statement with respect to causation. [If competition for food among finches on Galapagos is the main cause of extremes in beak sizes, then there are extremes in beak sizes on Galapagos finches, there is no relevant difference in food from island to island, and in conditions of scarcity the finches with extremes survive best. Ideally, the explanation contains a cohesive and cogent understanding of the origins of the problems, the conditions that perpetuate them, the obstacles interfering with their solution, and the resources available to address them. Meteorites provide yet another example. Which of the following statements best distinguishes hypotheses from theories in science? William James was the ________. Science as a way of seeking principles of order differs from art, religion, and philosophy in that: Science limits its search to the natural world of the physical universe. No names, please. No more mice. Answer: 16: What distinction (if any) is there between a scientific theory and a conceptual one that might lead you to disagree with this argument? An hypothesis is an idea that gives a tentative or temporary explanation to a phenomena. In many cases, an explanation is formulated before the observable outcome has been observed. For example, our hypothesis in this case could be that the toast didn't toast because the electrical outlet is broken. Deduce what? said he, petulantly. The arguer must have imagination to devise an explanation that is something more than a generalization of the experienced facts; and the evaluator must have imagination to think up viable alternative explanations for the sake of comparison. If so, then it probably has a low prior probability. A. The second part of the total evidence condition for explanatory arguments is this: the probability of the explanation must not be implausibly low and must be higher than that of the leading alternative explanations. a. aggressive behavior and media violence. These youngsters had, in fact, been selected at random from among their classmates. Could you find out for me which five days that man is on the road? When firefighters arrived to battle a blaze reported at a Van Nuys bar early Wednesday, they found a man pouring gasoline from a plastic jug outside the building. WebQuestion: Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? And it is highly probable that we will have any observation at all. Any unfalsifiable explanation is in principle unable to satisfy the improbable-outcome criterion and can never be the conclusion of a sound explanatory argument. It is just an explanation, designed to make the unexpected experience easier to understand. Another good way to check for an improbable outcome is to ask this: Does another explanation for this outcome already exist? I found a Thai restaurant and now I go there for lunch every day. And if regulation side-whiskers were all the rage, they would not indicate that the man was a sergeant in the marines. B. Which of the following shows the correct order for a scientific explanation? Which of the following defines hypothesis? He argued that, by super-cooling the stomach, acid production was reduced and the ulcer relieved. 1 Definitions In this instrument: chronic renal failure means: (a) having a glomerular filtration rate of less than 15 mL/min/1.73 m 2 for a period of at least 3 months; or (b) a need for renal replacement therapy (dialysis or transplantation) for treatment of complications of decreased glomerular filtration rate The lights in this old house keep flickering. Simplicity can be a significant contributor to the probability of an explanation. WebIntrospection refers to a process by which someone examines ________ as objectively as possible. In the study of personality, the ________ model includes dimensions of conscientiousness, agreeableness, neuroticism, openness, and extroversion. Which of the following statements is CORRECT? During an episode of wheezing, they found that the vocal cords, which are located in the airway leading to the lungs, formed almost a complete barricade across the passage. That should prove to you that it is running low. An explanation is in this way like a machine. In ancient Greece, when there was a difficult decision to be made, the wealthy Greeks would sometimes travel to Delphi and consult the oracle therean oracle who, it was believed, had special powers to foresee the future. Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? 5) Growth, development, and reproduction. That rock just smells like Mars, says Robert Pepin of the University of Minnesota. At any given time, each pilot has achieved a certain level of competencecall it the pilots current mean level of competence. Hypotheses are guesses; theories are correct answers. Ideally, the explanation contains a cohesive and cogent understanding of the origins of the problems, the conditions that perpetuate them, the obstacles interfering with their solution, and the resources available to address them. As with the other argument forms introduced in this text, there are a variety of alternative terms for explanatory arguments, none of which seems to have taken the lead. Competition promotes specialization, but so would food differences; so if competition were the main cause then I wouldnt expect to find food differences. Scientists initially were properly skeptical of the theory that they came from the sky, but the development of an account of how meteorites were jettisoned by asteroids and comets provided a conceptual framework that made sense, with the prior probability of the explanation rising accordingly. a. many coaches, parents, and teammates accept and reinforce the modeling of aggressive acts Treatment: in a research study, any condition applied to subjects - those in the treatment group - that is not applied to subjects in a control group. Explanation: Astrology is reliable. ________________ makes scientific-sounding claims that are not supported by trustworthy, methodical scientific studies. WebWhich of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? But there is a viable alternative explanation for this outcomenamely, Escaping from a shipwreck is largely a matter of luck, shipwrecks having little regard for passengers religious beliefs. Suppose I let you inspect my hat and then I pull a rabbit out of it, arguing that I have magical powers. Hypotheses are guesses; theories are correct answers. An hypothesis is an idea that gives a tentative or temporary explanation to a phenomena. As a useful standard, apply the surprise test by asking whether the outcome would surprise you (assuming you reserved judgment about whether the explanation were true and whether the outcome had been observed). WebExploratory research: Definition. But eventually, confronted by many cases in which there seemed to be no medical reasons for deaths, anthropologists and psychiatrists came to accept it as a pathology in its own right, linked to the victims belief in sorcery. But they differ from inductive generalizations in an important way. According to William James, the purpose of psychology was to ________. I thought it was the wind blowing up the canyon, like it does, you know, except it was real still. Explanations, to recall Chapter 2, are not necessarily arguments. a. with the intent to harm physically. The increases to Work in Process-Roasting Department for Highlands Coffee Company for May as well as information concerning production are as follows: Workinprocess,May1,1,150pounds,40%completed$1,700CoffeebeansaddedduringMay,10,900pounds28,600ConversioncostsduringMay12,504Workinprocess,May31,800pounds,80%completedGoodsfinishedduringMay,11,250pounds\begin{array}{lr}\text { Work in process, May 1, 1,150 pounds, } 40 \% \text { completed } & \$\hspace{10pt}1,700 \\ \text { Coffee beans added during May, 10,900 pounds } & 28,600 \\ \text { Conversion costs during May } & 12,504 \\ \text { Work in process, May 31, } 800 \text { pounds, } 80 \% \text { completed } & - \\ \text { Goods finished during May, } 11,250 \text { pounds } & -\end{array} Perier stopped and measured the barometer from time to time as he scaled the mountain, with results that were widely taken as impressive proof of Torricellis hypothesis. Muluple Choice Young women purchase fewer meats than women who are 35 years of age or older. Explanation: Simone is a code word. First: make observations; Last: Interpret data. 1 Definitions In this instrument: chronic renal failure means: (a) having a glomerular filtration rate of less than 15 mL/min/1.73 m 2 for a period of at least 3 months; or (b) a need for renal replacement therapy (dialysis or transplantation) for treatment of complications of decreased glomerular filtration rate (In the spring of 1983, the topographical feature was officially named Pointe Bernard Shaw). You can now see that you squandered your one opportunity. Which theorist published research related to the psychology of personality? The empirical method of study is based on ________. If the Earth is surrounded by a sea of air that decreases uniformly in pressure as the altitude increases, then Periers barometer reads 30 inches at 0 feet, 28.7 inches at 1,300 feet, 28.2 inches at 1,800 feet, 27.2 inches at 2,800 feet, and 26.2 inches at 3,800 feet, and 25.2 inches at 4,800 feet. Find three images of sound in the poem and three instances of silence. He selected two small habitats with similar vegetation and similar-sized blue jay populations (about 120 birds) with equal reproductive rates. Most aggression in sport falls in which of the following categories? This is no problem if your subjective expectations are exactly in accord with the evidence. The explanation must be sufficiently probable. The following are illustrative examples of explanatory power. Do you agree or disagree with the statement that "interest groups are evidence of political freedom"? Psychologists scientifically study ________. Gilbert Harman is associated with the phrase. For example, our hypothesis in this case could be that the toast didn't toast because the electrical outlet is broken. e. a and c, In the case study of head football coach Tom Martinez, Coach Martinez dealt with the area of aggressive play by Want to create or adapt books like this? Some explanations will eventually measure up to the standards of good reasoning; that is no reason to eliminate the standards. Further, it is not necessary for the prior probability of the explanation to be high; if the explanation were already highly probable, there would be no need for the argument! The leading alternative explanation is that the manager has succeeded by sheer luck. It includes the presumption of causation. Repression is the mechanism by which we push out of awareness and into our unconscious memories of deeply traumatic childhood experiences. How to Think about High Enough Prior Probability of Explanation. Observable outcome: As my horoscope says, at 3:00 today my bank will call and tell me that they have gone bankrupt and my life savings is lost. Although there is no formula for deciding on the improbability of the outcome, there are some helpful strategies that you can follow in making your decision. Step 2. In a scientific trial, some participants are given a pill that looks identical to a pill that contains the active ingredient being studied in the trial, but contains no active ingredient itself. Just like the coin-toss and mutual fund cases, coincidence does make sense and is at least as likely here as the paranormal. A frequently observed and poorly understood phenomenon in which there is a positive response to treatment with an inactive substance. The cages were then placed in the same spot where the frogs laid the eggs. I thought somebody must be barbecuing. An engaging and more detailed account of this experiment can be found in Keith Arnolds Pascals Great Experiment,. Step 1. The second premise states that the observable outcome is known to have happenedthat it has been observed. It makes no statement with respect to causation. A. If I were trying to give you a better causal understanding of it, you would probably expect me to tell you something about the chain of eventsthe family history or career decisionsthat led him to Illinois. My evidence? MUST: The conceptual framework was eventually supplied: the most important causal mechanism behind it is gravity, and, according to the eventually well-established Newtonian laws, gravitys pull on the air molecules decreases regularly as distance from Earth increases. Research testing the catharsis notion of spectator aggression has shown that Look for coincidence as an alternative explanation. This is a way of emphasizing the importance of an improbable outcome. We do not have to establish the correct explanation to establish that the argument is a bad one. Hypotheses are guesses; theories are correct answers. There we have the marine. The train of reasoning ran, Here is a gentleman of a medical type, but with the air of a military man. A friend told me that Thai food is especially effective for those who are on a diet. But the more moving parts a machine has, the more likely it is that it will break downso a well-designed machine includes no more parts than absolutely required. One emphasizes the power of suggestion as a psychological process; if faith can heal, despair can kill. Empirical knowledge is knowledge that is based on experience and observation. a. e. Follow up. If so, it is probably better to judge the logic of the argument as, at best, undecidable and, at worst, extremely weak. . The explanation is more probable than the leading alternatives. He goes to great lengths to take care of her. One habitat, selected at random, was sprayed with insecticide, and the other was used as a control. A. Suppose I tell you that I had a dream last night that I ran into a childhood acquaintance whom I had not seen for 30 yearsand that I then ran into him this morning? Draw conclusions and make revisions. Sample answer. In practice, it is usually easy to tell the difference between an explanatory argument and a deductive argument. What shall we concludeperhaps that youre a model citizen and, unluckily, the wind blew each and every one of them off your windshield before you saw it?. They got pregnant shortly thereafter and concluded (and counseled their friends) that thinking too much about it was itself responsible for their failure to conceive. Far worse than the plumber explanation from Dear Abby, it requires a long list of independently improbable things all to be truealternative ways, for example of accounting for the following: the vast documentation rescued from the German Archives; the elaborate sealed rooms set up for funneling the prisoners to their deaths; the movement of enormous quantities of asphyxiating Xyklon B gas to the death camps; the photographs of mounds of bodies; the vast body of eyewitness testimony by both victims and their murderers; and the otherwise mysterious disappearance from history of millions of Jews. Due to this defect, it took an especially rich array of observable outcomes and an especially compelling theoretical simplicity for it to gain rational acceptance. According to ancient Chinese folklore, the moon reappeared after the lunar eclipse because the people made a great deal of noise, banging on pots and pans and setting off fireworks. b. d. Let athletes decide on what punishments fit different aggressive and violent behaviors. An experimental design in which the subjects do not know what treatment (if any) they are receiving. This is solid evidence for the existence of the so-called sophomore jinx. An explanatory argument contends that certain facts can best be explained by a certain theory, and thus that the theory must be true. These crops are laid down in these sensational patterns by an energy that is of a high level of intelligence. Alas, two British painters finally confessed that they had perpetrated the hoax over a 13-year period simply by pulling around flat, four-foot planks by hand with reins to topple over the stalks. Instructors found that when a student pilot was scolded for a poor landing, the student usually did better the next time. On the other hand, does the arguer seem to expect the form alone to provide the logical support for the conclusion? b. thought out versus impulsive Suppose on the camping trip your friend wonders why the water boiled so quickly, and you reply, Because we are at a higher altitude. This is not an argument. My wife claims she doesnt know what happened to it. They commonly start a large number of small, unpublicized stock funds, each with a different investment strategy, on the assumption that by sheer luck at least one of them will establish a good track record. The first point of distinction is chronological. Delayed on the way west in 1846, 87 pioneers were stranded in late October by heavy snows in the Sierra. Psychoanalytic theory focuses on ________ and early childhood experiences. c. Use officials who do not tolerate aggression of any kind on the field. Muluple Choice Young women purchase fewer meats than women who are 35 years of age or older. Epistemic probability, as explained in Chapter 9, refers to the probability of the statements truth given all relevant available evidence. An experiment that makes it possible to determine decisively between alternative hypotheses. Chapter Three: A Framework for Clarifying, Chapter Seven: A Framework for Evaluating, Chapter Ten: How to Think About Deductive Logic, Chapter Twelve: EitherOr Arguments and More, Chapter Thirteen: How to Think About Inductive Logic, Chapter Fourteen: Inductive Generalization. But explanatory arguments are inductive arguments. After a few seconds, I knew it was. Barbecues occur far more frequently than house fires, so they have a much higher prior probability; but when the observable outcomeway too much smokedoes not follow from the barbecue explanation, we are logically forced to the less probable explanation that it is a house fire. C. It's correlated, but not causal. But the problem is that there is at least one alternative explanation that occurs much more frequently. Part Four: Evaluating the Truth of the Premises. And chivalry didnt make the difference, the researchers say, since women got no more food than men. Psychoanalytic theory focuses on ________ and early childhood experiences. If comets were common in December, then the premises of the argument would have still been true, but they would have given us no good reason to believe the conclusion. Exploratory research is defined as a research used to investigate a problem which is not clearly defined. A hypothesis attempts to explain natural phenomenon and can be tested through experimentation; a theory attempts to summarize a large expanse of natural phenomenon and has already been tested thoroughly without contradictory results. But that proves my point. The explanation is that all critics who dont praise you are just jealous; but this isnt falsifiable by reference to the reviews, since it predicts that the reviews will be either good or bad or somewhere in between. a. physically harming another individual Complete each There are a few money managers who succeed on the basis of skillmultibillionaire Warren Buffet is the most famous example. This hypothesis is not necessarily the right explanation. b. punishing all aggressive play This observable outcome easily follows from the Newtonian explanationthus, it would provide us with an argument with true premises. The fallacy of affirming the consequent is a fallacy only of arguments that rely solely on form for their logical successthat is to say, it is a fallacy of deductive arguments. This is not to say dogmatically that magic cannot happen. WebTranscribed image text: www.bbt.com Our Time.com Cesearch Foundations, Process, and Ethics Savod Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? In a short paragraph, identify the explanation, discuss why it may be unfalsifiable, and explain how this results in a problem with the first part of the total evidence condition. b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. Two Alternative Explanations to Bear in Mind. Reprinted with permission. c. Hypotheses usually are relatively narrow in scope; theories have broad explanatory power. But when, having slept in the car, your friend says, This water boiled quickly, so we must be well above sea level, this is offered as a reason to believe that we are well above sea level. Categorize types of drugs used to treat psychological disorders. e. Raise the level of coaching, with an emphasis on fair play, especially with younger athletes. Rabinoffs paper asserted that there was a correlation between TM practitioners desiring warmer weather on one evening and the occurrence of unusually warm weather the following day. B. When you cannot think of another explanation, it can be tempting to accept an explanatory argument even when the prior probability of the explanation is exceedingly low. e. a and c, a. setting up specific guidelines distinguishing assertive play from inappropriate aggressive play, When David Stern, commissioner of the National Basketball Association, banned Latrell Sprewell for choking his coach, he stated, "A sports league does not have to accept or condone behavior that would not be tolerated in any other segment of society." When the outcome already has a high prior probability, the hypothesis does no work. It always does reappear after an eclipse when much noise occurs. 3) Sensitivity and responsiveness to the external environment. We typically favor the explanations with the highest prior probability. In the steps of the scientific method, what is the process where a scientist writes down tentative explanations or statements about what he/she expects might happen under certain conditions? Organisms are able to maintain relatively constant internal conditions that may differ from the external environment. One method that is commonly used in this process is to compare the effects of a drug to that of a neutral placebo in double-blind tests. A theory has been extensively tested and is generally accepted among a set of scholars; a hypothesis is a speculative guess that has yet to be tested. How often do plumbers leave water spraying everywhere rather than turning it offif not at the faucet, then at the main? But Im not stupid. It included an account of the physical laws that govern the interactions of the planets, stars, and other heavenly bodies. 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Emphasizes the power of suggestion as a control explanations will eventually measure to... Openness, and extroversion monitored a drought that killed off 85 percent of the,...