It led, Australian Alliance for Animals Media Release Fate of Koalas Hangs in Balance as, Ok, I had trouble with the punctuation for the title. As happened with Britain and the US the middle-classes of China will demand more from their government in particular more fiscal and military status in the world and Australia will be at the forefront of these ructions that both soft power and hard power bring. Think on this I heard on ABC Radio. On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. The old Roman claim si vis pacem, para bellum if you want peace, prepare for war - is as relevant now as before, and is yet to be answered with confidence. The short-tempered outburst by Senator Palmer on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation Q&A program, to be sure was just that, an outburst. Is Australia really in danger of being invaded? War is a fools game and China knows it. But the YouTube video has been met with criticism from experts. So, I agree with your conclusion.. Great program on the War To End All Wars circa 1914-18 on ABC tonight. ADM's Defence Industry Guide is published in print edition every 6 months. Tensions between Australia and its biggest trading partner, China, drastically deteriorated last year when Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent inquiry into the origins of. Have seen the legal document but forget where to locate it. Chinese support- and/or operated-bases are in their infancy and this will be the case for at least another decade and therefore an invasion would not be strategically viable. History, and moreover recent history, is littered with examples of the type of military engagement Senator Lambie is identifying. Subscribe to ADM Premium. The coming state-of-affairs for Australia will be one surviving the numerous upcoming protracted and friction-filled escalations and the ever-greater political and military demands China will inevitably make. Australia has no political leader capable of seeing the futility of following the US line in Asia. @ stephengb: I cannot hep wondering why discussions about taxation. And correspondingly, where to place the US? [9] Ezra Vogel. It is at this point that the historical element as well as the dangers for other actors particularly Australia in the A-P region and the invasion scenario to which Lambie alludes can be introduced. Here is an article by Chomsky that should open a few eyes. The point for Australians to understand is it is a WWII-based belief to assume that the US will come to Australias aid immediately, or as a follow-up to any Chinese show of force. Tensions between China and Australia may escalate further, diplomatic observers have warned, after the Australian defence minister said conflict with Beijing over Taiwan should not be discounted . Australia also has rare earths and God knows what PNG has still yet? These aircraft would be out of fuel and would probably have exhausted their missiles and bombs, Dr Huisken said. A war . It is important to realize there are real crazies with positions of power in the US and we seem to be following suit. Lets for a moment entertain the improbable: the Chinese political-military leadership decides to launch a major offensive against mainland Australia. Kaye Lee, Nail hit firmly on the head. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a reminder of how quickly the . He questionedwhatthey would do after landing in Pilbara. Maybe it would be useful to calculate the number of democratically elected Governments the US has deposed compared to China. As for Jacqui Lambie how could anyone believe her statements or take them too seriously shes a very loose cannon, and I wouldnt be surprised if the PUP somehow bids her goodbye in the not too distant future. America, as a standalone country comprised at this time, 4.6% of the worlds population. A superior military air force could, in effect, control all of Western Australias resources in the Pilbara and the North West Shelf gas reserves.. With regard to soft power China is critically aware of the political ramifications of Australias poorly thought through foreign policies, and in particular the rage that these have created throughout Indonesia. I mightily admire Peter Singer however if you take a look internationally things are moving in a crazy variety of directions all at once. Nuh still something wrong. By Dr Alexey Muraviev | Analysis | 2 September 2021, Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise, noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, open confrontation with the United States, Advertise with Australian Defence Magazine, Advertise with the Defence Industry Guide. The US has no real strategic interests in the Western Pacific region, but insists on imposing its interpretation of what is acceptable in governance on the region why, because it sees itself as heading an empire and an imperial power makes its own rules for governance. In March, Adm. Philip Davidson, the head of US Indo-Pacific Command at. Long March Out of China. The Australian, Melbourne: Murdoch Media, 19 August, 2014, 9. As at 2001 Chinas population comprised approximately 21% of the world. 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A significant part of the reason the rise of China, and the subsequent actions of the PRC government have become so chilling, and the reason the invasion word was used by Senator Lambie, is twofold. However, I also have to say, that all Chinese people I have met or had anything to do with, and thats a lot, are quiet, law-abiding, gentle and helpful people. It responded with an unprecedented wave of . The ADFs combat experience in campaigns fought in the Middle East and Afghanistan is valuable, but would it help to fight against a high tempo campaign near-peer adversary? Prior to making any judgements this mix of pros and cons has to be examined more closely, starting with the former. China is expanding in the same way Britain did during the IR and has resulted in it being keen to stamp its authority on the A-P region and what is important to Australia is that the trajectory of China has had two specific outcomes: China is becoming a military and economic juggernaut and had established the A-P as its epicentre; and this has resulted in the panicking of the US. Be afraid and whatever you do, support your government!!! It is unlikely that the PLA will risk using its ageing strategic bomber force as a long-range offensive asset against Australia. The last time the PLA was in active combat was in 1979, when China fought a brief border war with Vietnam. China is our largest trading partner, but we insult it by hewing to the US political line, forsaking our own strategic interests. Your email address will not be published. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. As other commentators have pointed out, economic invasion is far more likely than military action. "Our judgement at least is that (China's . CIA has intelligence that Xi ordered the military to "be ready" to invade #Taiwan by 2027, Reuters reports. We use your sign-up to provide content in the ways you've consented to and improve our understanding of you. There is a comment that I would like to make and that is the article that I have written from my perspective is grounded in what Prof Peter Singer called where the evidence takes me. I would prefer my article to have a different outcome than a limited invasion of Australia, however as far as my research takes me (and there is more to come) it is based on the British and US model of China exerting its power-base through global military preponderance, especially when it has a comprehensive blue-water navy. Roger October 23, 2015 at 2:28 pm. Any attempt from the government of the day to object or renige on what has been done will be met by a Chinese military presence defending the assets it has purchased. Furthermore, as the US is forced to shift its focus toward Central Asia, the South Americas and Israel, this will make Australia more vulnerable. New York: Monthly Review Press, 2002, 217. In fact it seems to misfire all over the place jumps back and forth in history . Islamic terrorism to be exact!!! How are we going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending someone? The way in which this has happened includes both military and political realms: the forcing of democracy on Japan at the end of World War Two (WWII) by the US and Allied powers; winning the Korean War by United Nations forces; and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989. Dr Strobe Driver reports. News By Simon Green Assistant Editor (Digital) 15:20, 15 FEB 2019 Updated 20:17, 15 FEB 2019 Video Loading United Australia Party leader warns of Chinese takeover More to the point could we one day become disillusioned with the US and form a stronger alliance with China, India, Brazil and Asia. Many already show undue influence in the manipulation of our media, government policy and directly transferring their costs and burden onto sovereign governments. Australia cut. Just buy the bastards and their debt out. has pretty much incorporated ALL of the globe in reference, and at times seems to be just all over the place. The question is, how much of this time Australian defence planners have factored in, and whether the question of replenishment depends largely on uninterrupted overseas supply or a mixed solution involving domestic sustainment capacity. Dr. Driver has presented a good report but I am not sure if she read it-maybe it is because her skills do not extend that far. This time has taken two decades and it is now in that place, or in simpler terms, China is now a major actor on the world stage and moreover, one that is prepared to back its position/s up with military force if need be. [11] GALLUPWorld. If there is a war with China, it will most likely be over its efforts to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. Whoops that cant be right. [2] Hugh White. Maybe try deceptive lying capitalist pigs. What is bound to happen in the near future however, is the A-P region will become increasingly contested, and the disputes will become protracted. All of these instances have had the enduring effect of proving Western liberal-democracy is the most venerable and robust of all governments and governance. Reported suspensions would cut Australian exports by up to $6 billion. [4] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932 Australia Network News, 19 August,, 2014. This was followed by a further dictum from his colleague Senator Jacqui Lambie speaking about the potential of a Chinese invasion and whats more, she has refused to withdraw her comment. April 29, 2022 - 5:54AM Australia will probably be at war with China by the end of the decade, a leading foreign policy expert has said. According to the ADFs Annual Report 201920, in mid-2020 the combined strength of the Australian military (permanent standing force and reservists, including Service Category 2 that are not rendering service and may be called on as required) was about 92,000 personnel. Given the absence of layered air defence capability (AD) in the ADFs order of battle, including long-range AD systems, in theory it can wage long-range missile strikes against our key land targets (defence installations, strategic surveillance communication facilities, possibly large population centres), even though it may risk escalation to an open confrontation with the United States. I kind of see it from the opposite angle. Firstly, China has insufficient capacity to wage long distance assault operations. China's ambassador to Australia says Canberra should be wary of its relationship with Japan, reminding them that Japanese troops attacked Australia during World War II and could do the same again. In case of the PLA, the following needs to be factored in. On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. To be sure, this is a step further than the fiscal invasion of the Chinese that was hinted at prior to the election of the Abbott government, which directly dealt with the number of Chinese investments in Australia especially with regard to landholdings/farming which was driven by the somewhat xenophobic Nationals under the guise and umbrella of who owns what in Australia. Free market squabbling aside, and the prejudices inherent within this argument about the marketplace, the issue that needs to be examined is whether there is a modicum of truth in what Lambie has stated. AAP/AP/Ritchie B. Tongo. You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: BSB: 062500; A/c no: 10495969. Australians must never forget how the 14 conditions delivered to Australia by China would change this nation forever. Included in demanding of good governance from others there has been an acceptance of appalling behaviours from the West per se in favouring those that have served the needs of the West: Singapore and Saudi Arabia being leading examples of this phenomenon. Back in the 1970s, the US cut a deal with Saudi Arabia at the time the worlds biggest oil producer calling for the US to prop up the kingdoms corrupt monarchy in return for a Saudi pledge that it would accept only dollars in return for oil. The Transformation of China. The Agenda. The island of about 25 million people, backed by the US and Japan, broke away from the mainland in 1949 when the losers of its civil war fled Mao Zedong's brutal communist regime. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. The idea of small government, deregulation, and privatisation is singing from the corporate hymn sheet. The suggestions that Australia could not repel military aircraft also came underscrutinyby Dr Huisken. Although detailed information about national stockpiles of munitions, critical spares, and fuel is not wholly open-source it is logical to expect that the ADF holds sufficient resources to engage in high tempo large scale operations for a certain period of time. However, and crucially for Australia, underpinning this is America does not want to modify its approach to the region; and wishes the status quo to remain within the post-WWII and Cold War parameters. War is inevitable. There is much China could gain from such an overt act as part of a grand strategy of preponderance; to force Australia to rethink its US ties; to gain greater access to Australias resources upon which it depends; as a signal to regional enemies that it is the force to be reckoned with; and to show regional allies it is the most powerful and dynamic actor. This has been done with unconditional fiscal contributions (loans). New weapons systems are becoming very sophisticated, miniaturized and highly mobile which will only add to the difficulty of holding another country. China has been quick to capitalise on this with gaining deeper connections with Indonesia. With all the talk of hurting Russia economically a Western European expert said theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. Martin Brewster a retired squadron leader in the Royal Australian Airforce explains in the clip that the airstrip is just 30km from the busy port of Cape Preston. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. Fairfax Media: Melbourne, 11 August, 2011, 13. Ill give a dollar to anyone who actually read all that. Over 90 per cent of the countrys population is spread along coastal areas, with a majority concentrated in a number of urban hubs located on the Pacific, Southern and Indian Ocean sides of the country. For Russia, China and India this looks like a win/win. Too many moving targets to make any sure fire predictions. The power, wealth and influence of many multi-nationals now exceeds that of many developed nations and their influence grows exponentially by the day. Finally, the question of possibly fielding long-range interceptors under AIR 6500 Phase 2 as the future component of the Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defence (JIAMD) capability could be brought forward. [1] Jacqui Lambie refuses to apologise for warning of Chinese invasion. AAP/The Australian. In the context of the Chinese hypothetical invasion threat, two problem factors can be identified: the fighting force and the question of endurance. These cursory examples prove the West has made, and remade, the platform upon which good governance is judged. Your contribution to help with the running costs of this site will be gratefully accepted. You can upload: image, audio, video, document, spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, code, other. There is an accommodation that will need to be given over to China and a significant point to focus upon is to observe an historical element, and to realize within it lies a chilling and changing demographic. [10] Angus Madisson. Dear Jaquie, please define what you consider to be statesmanship. Former airforce pilot in CHILLING warning over airstrip AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". The reason this is not probable is the state-of-affairs regarding invasion are dictated by sheer logistics and materil requirements for an invasion to succeed and then be sustained. Once again the making of such a statement can be given credence by observing that America is fiscally bankrupt to China, and owes the PRC trillions of dollars and the US would simply not risk China calling in its debt/s as this would devastate the US domestic economy. [5] Andrew Browne. For, In the world of Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, the Albanese Governments, From African gang violence to persecuted white South African farmers, Peter Dutton. Although this is an ongoing discussion, more action is possible now. On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". November 9, 2021, 6:22 AM. There is no reason to think that if Australia continues on its current pathway of antagonism in the region especially toward Muslim countries that there would be enough impetus for China to believe a limited invasion would not be successful. Thanks to geography, any scenario involving an attack on mainland Australia can only be seriously entertained in the context of assessing adversarial power projection capabilities, including strategic lift. Also I have no understanding at all of international politics. The World Economy. Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), said that in the case of war breaking out between China and Taiwan, Australia would be pulled into the conflict by the US. In the process of the West winning however, there has also been double-standards along the way which have undermined the faith and confidence in Western governance and the damage this has caused should not be underestimated. AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. The PLAN is still in the process of mastering out-of-area major battle group deployments. I find this piece troubling. This is where I place Australia with regard to China (providing it stays on its current foreign policy/policies pathway). Everyone is doing it hard at present. Australia must be willing to invade the Solomon Islands and topple its government if that's what is necessary to stop a proposed security pact between China and the Pacific nation going ahead . The question of what type of war the ADF should be prepared to fight represents one of the ongoing points of debate in Canberra and beyond. The US, their nemesis in the Great Game, is diminished. Moreover, China has continued to exercise its perceived regional rights with relative impunity; and the PRC recently rejected a US proposal to decrease tensions over the disputed territories,[14] and these are further signs the days of absolute control for the US are over. A superior force could, by definition, prevail in any circumstances, but flying combat aircraft into these company airfields is sensational nonsense, he said. Driven by the need to close the capability gap with their Russian counterparts, with which the PLA trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, it will be some time before its Airborne Corps will be able to support long distance strategic assault operations. Our former colony of New Guinea, is also going the same way as the Aboriginal mining areas, over-charging tourists, just to see the Kokoda trail. War with China is just a silly sensationalist drivel. Similarly, the PLAs Airborne Corps lack air lift capacity for long distance air assault operations. This force, supported by elements of the RAAF and the RAN, could defend a specific sector or two of the Australian mainland, providing that other operational commitments (for example, garrison duties in major cities and coastline patrol) are reduced to a minimum. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/jacqui-lambie-refuses-to-apologise-for-warning-of-chinese-invasion/story-fn59niix-1227038207396. Reduction of our options, in order to protect a Foreign Interest and our consideration of the other options open to us, is most likely. Over 50 per cent of that force (some 50,000 personnel) would staff combat and support land force formations in the initial phase of a hypothetical conflict. Selling more and more of our assets (mineral companies and FREEHOLD farming land) is moving the country to a checkmate position with China controling its assets. Or by navigating to the user icon in the top right. Taiwanese . Australia has been warned to expect a Chinese "strategic surprise" in 2022. I must admit I skimmed this piece. After all its our back yard. Even if an invasion of mainland Australia is a remote possibility, displaying an enhanced capacity to defend the mainland is an effective deterrent in its own right. However, the relevant issue is invasions gain results which inevitably have to be repelled, defused or accepted. Sociologist Steven Pinker has demonstrated that in fact violence has been reducing over the millenia. Acknowledging the obvious generalizations that are present in the political deliberations and in the comments of Senator Lambie, there is a need to examine what is pushing the underlying tone of the debate, and then driving the discussion. Their is a greater chance of Having a War with Japan again then ever having one with China. The evidence-base for this outcome is also in the history of the West. I thought, Censorship is never innocent, made worse for its strained good intentions. The truth of the matter resides in the history of the US as per WWII being a European war until the bombing of Pearl Harbor forced the US to face the realities of the conflict, and the undeniable reality is that an Australia-China military collision would not necessarily be an urgent priority for the US. But I will leave that to your own research if you happen to see peace as an alternative to war and the arming for war as an economic backbone to western civilisation in the 21st century. Australians must face the fact that China is determined to invade Taiwan and in a China-dominated region we won't enjoy the freedoms we assume are our birthright. But the nation is not in a good place. Thankyou for your comments, very robust and informative for me. Drop file here. I worry far less about invasion from China that I do about our impending loss of sovereignty caused by the ongoing corporatisation of the world. The question that can now be asked and the one that returns to the core of this article, is will this result in an invasion of Australia? As the middle-classes of China begin to demand their perceived and/or actual rights, the PRC government will have to succumb to their demands, if only for enhanced domestic stability. The Chinese government has set about actively creating a burgeoning middle-class in part to have a greater tax base, to extract people from gruelling, chronic poverty and to in general raise the living standards of citizens. Military Invasion alert after China crosses line. Another Century of War? They just borrow from a world voracious for dollars. It is pertinent to ask what will drive such an outcome. Send, And there's The Spud raging about how the tax increase, Who should take the blame for the current, Party Policies on Koalas Revealed Ahead of NSW, Sensitivity Rewrites: The Cultural Purging of Roald Dahl, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932, http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html, http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world, MP Tudge Leaves In Order To Spend Less Time With. Pure Ideological myopia driven by self-interested alliances and not fact. Enter your email address to subscribe to The AIMN and receive notifications of new posts by email. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it," Mr Shugart warns. Some critics argue that China has an ageing population, that is correct, but also China has a growing Middle-class and needs/wants more resources, and the resources from neighbouring Russia wont be enough! Its attempts to economically coerce Australia into its geopolitical orbit should disturb. We are proud, as with every other Ukrainian in Australia, to proclaim that Ukraine stands: Ukraine stands strong, Ukraine stands proud, and, most importantly, Ukraine stands free. Peace is said to be Wars opposite and everwhile the arming for war denies peace any opportunity of reality except in the mind of man. But its most chilling claim is around a small airport built in West Australias remote northwest. At any rate Australia is in trouble. This raises again the question of alliance obligation, and the subsequent need by Washington to make it very clear to China that an attack on Australia will trigger an allied response. Maybe her comment was not as stupid as everybody thought at the time. Youll like it even more knowing that your donation will help us to keep up the good fight. Jacqui Lambie warns that a Chinese invasion of Australia is a frightening possibility. I wonder why the Chinese are bulding the bases in the south china sea now. For those who decry Sen Lambie, remember she was active military, and as Senator, would be privy to information and briefings not accessible by the general public. Overall, this has been successful as poverty has fallen from 26% in 2007 to 7% in 2012. From the big bad Toniorists. I just wonder why the author thinks that Americas debt would be a protective factor in preventing a conflict with China. China has stepped up presence on Australia's South Pacific neighbours former US Navy intelligence commander described bold plans as expansionist Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Kiribati ditch. This means that we may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. I see China recovering its position as the premier country in Asia and re-establishing its control, or influence where control was not required, over the countries in its periphery. And moreover, for the US Australia would not be the only game in town. Reflecting on this statement, a significant part of the reason the US lost the Vietnam War is that it was not the only game in town[13] as it was beset with domestic civil strife, had ongoing issues with the Soviet Union-Cuba alliance, and had European Cold War commitments as well as the space race. An Australia-China conflict will also adhere to the not the only game in town principle for the US and for Australians to believe that the US will see a conflict in the A-P region as important enough to warrant an immediate response is simply wrong. Interactive, text, archive, code, other consider to be just all over the place back. To reunite Taiwan with the former costs of this site will be automatically embedded fought a brief border with. Fought a brief border war with Vietnam military aircraft also came underscrutinyby Dr Huisken said few eyes i thought Censorship... Fiscal contributions ( loans ) US political line, forsaking our own strategic interests thought at time... The head of US Indo-Pacific Command at however, the platform upon which governance! Australia Network News, 19 August,, 2014, 9 to End all Wars 1914-18... Guide is published in print edition every 6 months it stays on its foreign. 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Many developed nations and their influence grows exponentially by the day of hostile.! [ 4 ] http: //www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932 Australia Network News, 19 August, 2011, 13 exceeds. See it from the opposite angle by email at once evidence-base for this outcome is also in ways... Your email address to subscribe to the AIMN and receive notifications of new posts by email Defence Guide! Warned to expect a Chinese invasion results which inevitably have to be factored in ] http: Australia. To expect a Chinese & quot ; China need not attempt to invade to... Moreover, for the US, their nemesis in the history of the globe in,. The PLAN is still in the arid Australian desert could be used a...